As Bitcoin (BTC) trades in a tight range just below the psychological level of $109,000, market observers and investors nervously anticipate a decisive catalyst. Bitcoin below $109K action is still flat despite recent high-profile events involving economic diplomacy between the US, UK, and China. This begs the question of whether macroeconomic events are losing control over crypto price dynamics or if the market is just stopping before its next significant action.
In this thorough study, we will investigate why Bitcoin has not been able to surpass $109,000, the effects of current global events, and possible triggers to rekindle optimistic enthusiasm. From institutional investment patterns to regulatory signals and past price behavior, this guide seeks to be the ultimate tool available to anyone monitoring Bitcoin’s next major breakthrough.
Analysis of Bitcoin Prices
The fight for Bitcoin to surpass $109,000 is not only about technical opposition but also about a shortage of fresh money inflow and declining investor excitement. Data from Glassnode and CoinMarketCap shows that Bitcoin’s trade volume has dropped significantly since the start of Q2 2025. Still neutral, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) swings about the 52 line, signifying trader uncertainty.
Previously driving the BTC surge early this year, institutional investors seem to be in a holding pattern. Minimal net inflows for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Greyscale Bitcoin’s Struggle at $99K, Trust (GBTC) over the past two weeks point to a cooling off of enthusiasm following the first wave of ETF-driven purchases.
An Opportunity Lost for Bitcoin?
Many experts had expected that better diplomatic ties between the United States, the United Kingdom, and China would function as a positive trigger for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. During the US-UK Business Dialogue and the following trilateral conference in Singapore, which included Chinese officials later in May 2025, a number of trade and financial technology deals were struck.
Bitcoin exhibited no response despite hopes that these worldwide partnerships would improve market mood and inspire more foreign investment into digital assets. First noted during the Russia-Ukraine war and the US debt limit dispute in 2023, the subdued reaction suggests a growing dissociation between international events and bitcoin performance.
Less conventional macro headlines and more internal crypto-native elements like protocol updates, ETF flows, mining activity, and regulatory news define Bitcoin’s market cycle as increasingly clear-cut.
Regulatory Signals: The Missing Coordinator
Clear legislative direction from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is one of the most crucial latent catalysts that might drive Bitcoin beyond $109,000. Key decisions about approving spot Ethereum ETFs, stablecoin frameworks, and crypto taxation have been postponed or caught in bureaucratic muck recently.
Investors seek assurance. A completed regulatory structure could release billions of overlooked institutional capital, especially from pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. Should the SEC approve a more extensive crypto investment strategy, Bitcoin most certainly would start to move quickly outside of its present range.
Pressure in Mining and Supply Dynamics
Based on on-chain data, Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges are the lowest since 2018. Data from Glassnode shows strong HODLing behavior among long-term holders. More than 78% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has not moved in the past six months.
Concurrent with this is the recent April 2024 Bitcoin halving event, which began supply-side pressure. Reduced mining payouts from 6.25 BTC to 3.125. BTC every block have essentially halved the newly minted Bitcoin hitting the market. This declining supply, coupled with the lack of fresh demand, has caused a deadlock.
That supply shock, though, might be a ticking time bomb. Should even a small inflow of institutional buying enter the market—driven by geopolitical concern or regulatory clarity—Bitcoin may swiftly rise over $109,000 and beyond.
The Part Played by Stablecoins and Global Liquidity
Stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) are another unappreciated element influencing Bitcoin’s market movement. Bitcoin Price Surge, These digital dollars greatly enhance global crypto liquidity. Data from Kaiko Research shows that over 70% of all centralised exchange volumes are presently dominated by stablecoin trading pairs.
Still, stablecoin market capitalisation has levelled off since Q1 2025. Without the fresh issuance of stablecoins, particularly USDT and USDC. The crypto market lacks the buying power to push Bitcoin to new highs. Renewed confidence in stablecoins, possibly driven by new banking partnerships. Regulatory green lights could unlock the next phase of bullish momentum.
