Bitcoin market reaction: On April 9, US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day halt on reciprocal tariffs, except for China, causing U.S. equities and crypto markets to change dramatically. The announcement set off a 5% increase in Bitcoin (BTC) within the hour; the price recovered from the $83,000 mark last observed on April 6.
While the S&P 500 recovered 8%, the attitude in the crypto derivatives markets remains unknown. Given the changing macroeconomic environment and volatility in long-term U.S. government bonds, Bitcoin traders seem wary even with the surge in spot prices.
Bitcoin Futures Signal Brief Optimism
At first, the price break responded well for Bitcoin Market Surge futures. Usually associated with a bullish attitude, the BTC futures premium climbed above the neutral 5% level. This momentum, though, was fleeting. Many investors questioned whether the U.S. Federal Reserve would pursue an interest rate reduction this year.
Still, the latest increase shows a slow comeback of confidence among Bitcoin enthusiasts compared to March 31, when the futures premium stayed near 3%. Their hope probably results from Bitcoin’s resiliency following several failed attempts to drop below the crucial $76,000 support level.
Federal Minutes and 10-Year Yield Stir Market Jitters
The April 9 publication of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 18–19 meeting sharpened traders’ caution. These minutes underlined worries about stagflation, a situation in which steady inflation is accompanied by slow development, changing the expectations about monetary policy.
Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that from 97.6% on April 8 to 69.7% the next day, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates below 4% by its September 17 meeting fell. Traders saw this change as indicating a possible slower or more limited relief rate than expected.
The volatility in the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate has heightened investor stress. A decreasing yield usually denotes less faith in the government’s debt management capability. Editor of The Boock Report, economist Peter Boockvar, told Yahoo Finance that investors are attentively monitoring the 4.40% mark on the 10-year. He also mentioned growing concerns about foreign holders perhaps lessening their exposure to U.S. Treasurys, aggravating bond markets.
Better yields, weaker dollar: the macro overhang on Bitcoin
The U.S. finds paying off its mounting debt more costly as investors seek more government returns from rising bond yields. Over time, this trend can cause the U.S. dollar to devalue. Although a weaker dollar has historically favored Bitcoin market reaction, uncertainty about bond markets and inflation policies makes traders cautious about going all-in in the current environment. This uncertainty has permeated the options market, where sellers are less persuaded of a continuous increase.
After China Retaliates, Options Traders Turn Neutral; Trump Reacts
Rising to 12% on April 9 following China’s retaliatory tariff announcement, the 25% delta skew in Bitcoin Falls Below $100K options indicates that the difference between call and put option demand spiked. This suggested a negative tilt as traders hurried to acquire downside protection.
After Trump’s tariff halt, though, the tilt turned sharply and settled at a neutral 3%. This change suggests that the bearish phase, which started about March 29, may be losing pace as traders now perceive an equal possibility for Bitcoin to move up or down.
Funding Rates Mirror Tepid Retail Interest
Persistent futures funding rates provide insightful information about retail investors’ attitudes. Usually reflecting market positioning, these closely monitored spot price contracts depend on short-term interest payments between traders. Rising to 0.9%, Bitcoin’s 30-day funding rate reached its highest level over six weeks on April 9. This stays in a neutral zone even though it indicates higher involvement, probably from retail buyers. This helps to explain why, despite some hope, it is not a full-fledged optimistic breakout.
In a Murky Macroenvironment, traders
The larger market is still waiting, even if the spot price of Bitcoin market reaction shows great movement. Trade conflicts with China remain unresolved; U.S. Treasury yields are erratic; and faith in the Federal Reserve’s monetary approach erodes. Until macroeconomic uncertainty lessens, especially concerning bond yields and interest rates, Bitcoin traders will unlikely be committed to a consistent positive trend.
